NO UNIVERSITY UNIQUE: ENROLLMENTS DECLINING

DATA Contradict Local Claims THAT MORE STUDENT HOUSING IS NECESSARY-6 reports below


Full Article: NATIONAL REPORT BY THE NSC RESEARCH CENTER (MAY 30, 2019): IDAHO UNIVERSITY ENROLLMENTS DECLINE 1.4% (page 10)

Current Term Enrollment Estimates, published every December and May by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, include national enrollment estimates by institutional sector, state, enrollment intensity, age group, and gender. Enrollment estimates are adjusted for Clearinghouse data coverage rates by institutional sector, state, and year. As of spring 2019, postsecondary institutions actively submitting enrollment data to the Clearinghouse account for 97 percent of enrollments at U.S. Title IV, degree-granting institutions. Most institutions submit enrollment data to the Clearinghouse several times per term, resulting in highly current data. Moreover, since the Clearinghouse collects data at the student level, it is possible to report an unduplicated headcount, which avoids double-counting students who are simultaneously enrolled at multiple institutions.

Full Articles from the Chronicle of Higher Education: ”Other Changes on the Horizon” & ”The Great Enrollment Crash”

Higher education has fully entered a new structural reality. You’d be naïve to believe that most colleges will be able to ride out this unexpected wave.... Those who saw ... high-school graduation dips by 2020 as surmountable must now absorb the statistical reality: Things are only going to get worse [with] a sharp decrease in fertility [that] will further deepen the high-school graduation trough by 2026. Meanwhile, the cost of attendance ... insists on outpacing inflation, [as] American incomes continue to stagnate.
— Bill Conley, "The Great Enrollment Crash: Students Aren’t Showing up and It’s Only Going to Get Worse." The Chronicle of Higher Education Review, September 6, 2019
A nationwide drop in student enrollment, beginning in the 2020s, is on the horizon..., so campuses should be cautious about big infrastructure expansions.... “if I were a university president, I wouldn’t be planning on building a lot of new dormitories.”
— Emma Pettit, "Other Changes on the Horizon: Urban Colleges Will Expand — but Carefully." Chronicle of Higher Education, February 18, 2019.

Full Articles, Chronicle of Higher Education, Oct 2019 ThemeNo University is an Exception—5 VIEWS ON THE “GREAT ENROLLMENT CRASH”

College enrollment is down 1.7 percent nationwide, and universities up and down the quality chain missed headcount goals this fall. Throw in Moody’s negative credit outlook for higher education; hyper-competition; a booming economy drawing prospective students into the labor force; fewer high-school graduates in most regions; students with different needs and expectations; free-college initiatives; state funding challenges; and parents who can’t or won’t pay for college, and I see serious headwinds with a very long tail.
— Madeleine Rhyneer, "No, Your College Is Not an Exception." The Chronicle of Higher Education Review, October 2, 2019
2007 seems to have been the tipping point, the final warning that we were on a collision course with reality. Tuition increases have slowed a bit since then but are still increasing faster than inflation and are exacerbated by flat or decreasing family incomes. We are facing a crisis in enrollment….
— Jon Boeckenstedt, vice provost, enrollment management, Oregon State University. "A Collision Course with Reality." The Chronicle of Higher Education Review, October 2, 2019

Full Article, December, 2017, Chronicle of Higher Education: Demographic Changes as Destiny in College Admissions

...regional four-year institutions outside the top 100...have very, very local markets, and the forecasts are pretty dismal in most of those markets. It’s tempting to think, Well, my institution’s going to be the exception. This is problematic for two reasons. One is the aggregate data remain the same. If your institution is an outlier on the positive side, that just means that the negative reckoning that your peers are facing is even worse than the projection. It’s got to average out. Second, it presumes that your peers, who are even worse than the dismal forecast, are just going to continue doing what they’re doing while you blissfully go on your way. And I don’t believe that for a second. You’re going to see increased competition if you happen to be among the lucky subset that has a stable or growing market. The bottom line is there’s almost nothing that’s going to get us around the fact that, in the late 2020s, we should see really significant reductions in enrollment. If your strategy for this is to try to increase enrollments, the model suggests that that’s a bad idea.
— Eric Hoover, December 14, 2017, "Demographic Changes as Destiny in College Admissions," Chronicle of Higher Education